Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 20.447384 22.278916 24.308762 26.747433 29.628347 32.963529 37.178177
2024-12-29 17.666173 20.054107 22.900709 26.623061 31.491051 37.847434 47.174519
2025-01-05 15.796189 18.463497 21.817735 26.502536 33.170719 42.882402 59.469671
2025-01-12 14.267486 17.023924 20.626161 25.912730 33.961396 46.831951 72.243624
2025-01-19 13.635377 16.625374 20.696780 27.009942 37.410386 56.127633 101.640709
2025-01-26 12.743911 15.758422 19.976166 26.767032 38.606221 61.952627 130.316623
2025-02-02 12.093407 15.148539 19.532480 26.849569 40.346100 69.682029 177.776228
2025-02-09 11.577701 14.674361 19.222603 27.076836 42.391143 79.285694 261.554343
2025-02-16 11.095684 14.203145 18.858310 27.138376 44.111452 89.286902 409.090881
2025-02-23 10.590810 13.657232 18.319700 26.802900 44.895108 97.279342 651.156561
2025-03-02 10.213461 13.274546 18.003757 26.824142 46.493192 109.507935 1480.875586
2025-03-09 9.828854 12.854329 17.588312 26.596428 47.444680 120.548816 6057.974713
2025-03-16 9.458838 12.440282 17.159721 26.308156 48.240641 132.502689 NaN
2025-03-23 9.130494 12.073162 16.783295 26.079768 49.164294 146.929101 NaN
2025-03-30 8.840503 11.750444 16.458659 25.917317 50.250499 164.770314 NaN
2025-04-06 8.506948 11.341725 15.957717 25.329917 49.967592 174.158083 NaN
2025-04-13 8.444920 11.363621 16.209555 26.376399 55.012619 239.438327 NaN
2025-04-20 8.202104 11.079162 15.894771 26.139169 55.880680 272.476151 NaN
2025-04-27 8.019213 10.884053 15.728231 26.216808 57.892365 333.688788 NaN
2025-05-04 7.866443 10.731073 15.627778 26.434373 60.536953 434.608760 NaN
2025-05-11 7.703001 10.552634 15.468160 26.493153 62.645322 566.349596 NaN
2025-05-18 7.503137 10.304887 15.164274 26.170810 63.131330 675.035006 NaN
2025-05-25 7.355343 10.139242 15.006372 26.191156 65.121020 943.229005 NaN